Week 1 Prediction: Will Saints March on Lions?
NFL Picks | by Mike O'Hara | 09.11.2009/6:24PM
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This is my analysis and prediction of Game 1 – the Lions at New Orleans Saints. My complete NFL picks for Week 1 are available on The Detroit News website at detnews.com.
Kickoff: Sunday at 1 p.m. (EDT).
History: The series is tied 9-9-1, and the Lions have won the three of the last four.
Last meeting: Game 15 of 2008 – a 42-17 Saints victory at Ford Field.
Lions’ injury report: Doubtful QB Drew Stanton (knee). Questionable CB Phillip Buchanon (neck), WR Yamon Figurs (finger), G Stephen Peterman (ankle). Probable K Jason Hanson (right knee), DE Jason Hunter (ribs), DT Grady Jackson (knee), WR Dennis Northcutt (hand).
If Peterman can’t play, Manny Ramirez will take his place.
The key issue for Hanson, who underwent surgery and has not kicked since the first exhibition game, is stamina and whether he can hold up on kickoffs and long field goals.
Saints’ injury report: Out OT Jammal Brown (hip surgery), TE Darnell Dinkins (foot), RB Pierre Thomas (knee). Probable TE Jeremy Shockey (ankle), S Usama Young (shoulder).
With Brown and Thomas out, it hurts the running game and protection for Brees.
Key Lions’ stats: Their defense ranked last in the NFL in 2008 in points, yards and average gain per play allowed. The Lions had a league-low four pass interceptions, and only one was by a defensive back (Leigh Bodden, who was released and signed with New England).
New Lions defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham spent last season in Kansas City, where the Chiefs had a league-low 10 quarterback sacks.
A combination of those stats – only four interceptions and four sacks – would be a gruesome combination. Don’t expect either to occur.
Key Saints stat: Drew Brees became the second player in NFL history to pass for more than 5,000 yards in a season with 5,069 last year. Dan Marino holds the record with 5,084. Brees had 10 300-yard passing games, tying the record set by Rich Gannon with the Raiders in 2002
Saints’ new defensive scheme: Gregg Williams is their new defensive coordinator. He was in line to become the head coach of the Washington Redskins in 2008, but owner Dan Snyder first hired Jim Zorn as offensive coordinator, then promoted him to head coach within a few weeks.
Williams is known for wanting to pressure quarterbacks. That can be done by blitzing, which Williams likes, and schemes designed to confuse the quarterback.
Spotlight: It’s on Matthew Stafford, the Lions’ rookie and the first player drafted in April. He beat out Daunte Culpepper for the starting job.
In the exhibition season, Stafford showed a strong arm – and a willingness to use it on deep throws and between defenders. He’ll make some mistakes, but they have to be overcome by big plays. For that, he has wide receiver Calvin Johnson. They seemed to develop a chemistry in the exhibition season.
Saints’ problem: Their running game is suspect because of injuries. Reggie Bush played sparingly in the exhibition season because of sore knees, and Pierre Thomas is out. The run defense was the weakest part of the Lions’ defense last year.
How the Lions can win: If it’s an even game, mano-a-mano according to the script, the Saints will win. They’re better than the Lions, and this is their fourth year with Sean Payton as head coach and Brees at quarterback.
The Lions need to win the turnover battle, control the ball and maximize their scoring opportunities. They won’t win simply by winning time of possession. They have to gets points out of drives.
How the Saints can win: Just play their game at home, and everything will take care of itself. That’s easier said than done, though, and the Saints are hardly a powerhouse. They’re 26-24, counting playoffs, in Payton’s three years as head coach.
If the running game is questionable, they can ride Brees’ arm.
Betting favorite: Saints by 13.
Prediction: Until the Lions’ defense steps up and makes stops on a consistent basis, there’s no reason to think they can hold quarterbacks like Brees in check. The Lions will do well enough on offense, but the Saints should march.
Saints 34, Lions 17.
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