Vegas Puts Lions Win total at 5: I Say Bet the Over
NFL Picks | by Mike O'Hara | 05.26.2010/7:35AM
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The Lions are getting better, and you can bet on it.
How much better?
That’s for bettors to decide.
The Las Vegas Hilton Sports Book has published the over-under win totals on the NFL’s 2010 regular season, and the Hilton puts the Lions’ total at five wins – with odds favoring the Lions to go over.
Awhile back, I made a joke about local talk show host Doug Karsch reacting to visits by draft prospects like a porcupine on a whoopee cushion. And I had to admit, when Karsch called me out on the air, I really had no idea what a porcupine on a whoopee cushion means. All in good fun, obviously.
For me, the opening lines and prop bets for the NFL are my – well, whoopee cushion. Except I’m more like a hippo on a water bed. I get worked up over this stuff.
I rate the Lions’ bottom-line at six wins, with a maximum, best-case scenario of 8-8.
That means bet the over – but with some words of caution, based on finances.
To bet the over, you have to lay $135 to win $100. For under five wins, a bet of $100 returns $115.
First, you have to lay the money before the start of the regular season. The Lions open at Chicago on Sept. 12. That means your money is tied up for almost four months.
Second, the Lions have to win six games to collect on the over bet. If they win five, you get a push – but you’ve lost four months of being able to collect interest or use the money for any other investment purpose – like playing blackjack at the casino.
And third – and certainly not least in the world of risk – you can lose, and pay the 35 percent premium on betting the over.
Some other nuggets from the Hilton Sports Book’s early lines:
The Lions are seven-point underdogs on opening day.
The Hilton has posted odds on prime-time TV games – including Thanksgiving Day. The Patriots are favored by six over the Lions on Thanksgiving Day.
In the NFC North, the over-under totals are 9.5 on the Packers and Vikings and eight on the Bears. I do not see the Bears winning eight games.
The Chargers and Colts are at the top of the board with 11 wins. Next are the Super Bowl champion Saints at 10.5 and the Ravens at 10. Those four are the only teams with double digit win totals.
The Lions and Rams are at the bottom with five wins. The Bills and Bucs are next at 5.5.
Don’t tell me games between the so-called weak teams are meaningless. Big money can change hands on these three games: Week 5, Lions at Rams; Week 10 Lions at Bills; Week 15, Lions at Bucs. If you’ve bet the over or under doesn’t matter. Those games could decide whether you fly to Vegas to collect and splurge, or throw a shoe through the TV screen.
The Eagles are at 8.5 with Kevin Kolb at QB in place of Donovan McBabb. That’s a drop from last year’s 11-5. The Redskins are at 7.5 with McNabb at QB – up from 4-12. In my math, that makes McNabb worth six wins.
Two bets I’d absolutely make: the Lions to go over 5, the Patriots to go under 9.5. The Patriots have not been the same since their Super Bowl loss to the Giants.
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