Lions to Snap Losing Skid Against Vikings
NFL Picks | by Mike O'Hara | 09.19.2009/5:58PM | Category:
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This is my analysis and prediction of Game 2 – the Lions vs. the Minnesota Vikings at Ford Field. My complete NFL picks for Week 2 are available on The Detroit News website at detnews.com.
Kickoff: Sunday at 1 p.m. (EDT).
History: The Vikings have a 63-30-2 series lead with a three-game winning streak.
2008: The Vikings rallied to win both games, 12-10 at the Metrodome and 20-16 at Ford Field.
Lions’ injury report: Doubtful DE Cliff Avril (hamstring), QB Drew Stanton (knee); Questionable DT Andre Fluellen (knee), CB Eric King; Probable CB Phillip Buchanon (neck), K Jason Hanson (right knee), DT Grady Jackson (knee), CB William James (foot), G Daniel Loper (knee).
Vikings injury report: Out LB Erin Henderson (calf); Questionable LB Heath Farwell (hamstring); Probable G Anthony Herrera (back), TE Jim Kleinsassser (hand).
Culpepper factor: The Lions are 0-10 in games against the Vikings in which Daunte Culpepper has started at quarterback. He started for the Lions in one game against the Vikings last year – a 20-16 loss.
Key Lions’ stats: 6 – the number of TD passes thrown against them last week by Saints QB Drew Brees; 157 – yards rushing for the Saints; 27.4 – Matthew Stafford’s passer rating in his first pro start. None of those are winning numbers.
Key Vikings stat: 66, 116, 111, 105 – RB Adrian Peterson’s rushing totals in his four games against the Lions. He has scored two TDs – both in a game at the Metrodome in 2007.
Favre factor: Vikings QB Brett Favre had a 25-9 won-lost record against the Lions in 16 seasons with Green Bay. Two wins were in the playoffs. Favre won 13 of his last 15 games vs. the Lions and the last five.
Lion in the spotlight: It’s cornerback Phillip Buchanon, who missed the opener because of a neck injury. Eric King started in Buchanon’s place and was beaten soundly all game. Buchanon should hold up better in coverage and give the rush a chance to get to Favre.
How the Lions can win: They got good returns on special teams last week and good coverage, except for the opening kickoff. Another game of that can make a difference. They have to hold down Peterson and turn the blitz loose on Favre. He can’t move and will throw it up for grabs.
How the Vikings can win: They’re heavy favorites for good reasons. Two good reasons – Peterson’s running, and a defense led by the Williams Wall – tackles Pat and Kevin Williams. If they play their game, they’ll make it tough for the Lions. Tough, but not impossible.
Betting favorite: Vikings by 9.5.
Prediction: Take the points all day in this one. The Brett Favre you’ll see in the white jersey with purple trim isn’t the one who scorched the Lions for 16 years wearing yellow and green for the Packers. Something good has to happen for the Lions eventually, and Sunday is as good a day as any. The Lions played them tough twice last year, and they’re better this year. Stafford got his first taste of real game tempo last week. He’ll make adjustments. Lions 16, Vikings 14.
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