Safest Wild-Card Bet: Lions Don’t Measure Up
NFL Picks | by Mike O'Hara | 01.3.2009/10:33AM
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The 12-team field for this season’s NFL playoffs represents a true measuring stick for the Detroit Lions.
Simply put, they don’t measure up with the best and worst of the playoff teams – from the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants, to the San Diego Chargers, who made the playoffs by winning the AFC West with an 8-8 record.
It is no surprise, based on their 0-16 record in 2008 and a 1-23 record in the last 24 games, that the Lions come up short in comparisons.
In the last two seasons, the Lions have won only one of 12 games against the 12 playoff teams. Their lone victory came in the second game of the 2007 season – 20-17 over the Vikings in overtime at Ford Field.
Since then, the Lions have lost 11 straight to this year’s playoff field, including three in a row to the Vikings.
Some losses were close, especially two to the Vikings in 2008 – 12-10 at the Metrodome and 20-16 at Ford Field.
A 16-10 loss to the Giants in 2007 was a pivotal point for both teams. Both teams were 6-3 going into the game. The Giants left Ford Field with the upper hand, made the playoffs and beat the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. The Lions continued a slide that saw them tumble to a 7-9 record with a 1-7 finish in the second half after a 6-2 start.
Close losses were outweighed by blowouts in games when the Lions were not competitive – 56-21 to the Eagles, 42-10 to the Vikings and 51-14 to the Chargers in 2007, and 34-21 to Atlanta and 47-10 to Tennessee in 2008.
The combined score in the 11 losses was 371-176 – an average margin of defeat of 17.7 points per game.
There is no margin for error in the playoffs. It is sudden death – one loss and out.
Here are the picks for this weekend’s wild-card games:
Saturday
NFC
Falcons (11-5) at Cardinals (9-7).
Site: University of Phoenix Stadium.
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. (EST).
TV/Radio: NBC-TV, Westwood One radio network, Sirius 124, 125, 127; XM 124, 102, 103.
History: Cardinals won last meeting – 30-27 in overtime on Dec. 23, 2007 at Arizona.
Update: The Cardinals are playing their first home playoff game since 1947 – when they were the Chicago Cardinals. They’ve since moved to St. Louis, then Arizona. And you think Lions fans have suffered a long time?
The Cardinals have a passing game – Kurt Warner (4,583 yards, 30 TDs) and not much else. WR Larry Fitzgerald led the NFC with 96 catches and 1,431 yards and tied for the league lead with 12 TD catches. WR Anquan Boldin also made the playoffs.
Arizona’s running game is nonexistent. Edgerrin James, benched in midseason, still led the team with 514 yards rushing.
Rookie QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner, signed as a free agent, were Atlanta’s key free-agent additions on the field. In the front office, owner Arthur Blank moved Rich McKay laterally and turned the GM job over to Thomas Dimitroff, who then hired Mike Smith as coach. Turner was second in the league with 1,699 yards rushing. Jonathan Abraham was second in the NFC with 16.5 sacks.
Hot and cold: The Falcons won 11 or more games for the fourth time in franchise history, and kicker Jason Elam went over the 100-point mark for the 16th straight season, a record. The Cardinals were 6-0 in the West and only 3-7 against the rest of the league.
Betting favorite: Falcons by 1.
Prediction: The Cardinals have the edge in passing and home field, but the Falcons throw it well, run it better and play better defense. Falcons to win.
AFC
Colts (12-4) at Chargers (8-8)
Site: Qualcomm Stadium.
Kickoff: 8 p.m. (EST).
TV/Radio: NBC-TV, Westwood one radio network, Sirius 124, 125, 127; XM 124, 102, 103.
History: On Nov. 23, the Colts beat the Chargers, 23-20, in San Diego on Adam Vinatieri’s 51-yard field goal as time expired. San Diego eliminated Indy in last year’s divisional playoff with a 28-24 win at Indy.
Update: Colts QB Peyton Manning won his third MVP Award, deservedly so. The Colts have no running game and a weaker offensive line than last year but he guided them to a sixth-straight season of at least 12 wins. RB Dominic Rhodes will be an important player for the Colts. In his last four playoff games for the Colts, he has rushed for 306 yards and 4.9 yards per carry. DE Robert Mathis made his first Pro Bowl with a career-high 11.5 sacks.
Chargers QB Philip Rivers tied for the NFL lead with 34 TD passes. In the four-game winning streak, Rivers had 11 TD passes, one interception and a passer-rating of 120.3. In the last two games against the Colts, Rivers has five TD passes, one interception and a 136.4 rating.
Injuries are an issue for San Diego. RB LaDainian Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates are hurting and were limited in practice all week. The Colts are hurting on the offensive line.
Hot and cold: Both teams go into the playoffs on an upswing. The Colts won their last nine games to clinch a wild-card berth. The Chargers won four straight to win the AFC West.
Betting favorite: Colts by one.
Prediction: I rank the Colts as a better team, but the Chargers will win this game because of the matchups.
Sunday’s games
AFC
Ravens (11-5) at Dolphins (11-5)
Site: Dolphin Stadium.
Kickoff: 1 p.m. (EST).
TV/Radio: CBS-TV, Westwood One radio network, Sirius 124, 125, 127; XM 123, 102, 103.
History: The Ravens beat the Dolphins, 27-13, on Oct. 19 at Dolphin Stadium.
Update: The Dolphins need a reversal of that first meeting, and they’ve have to challenge the Ravens’ strength – the defense – to reverse the score. They were held to 151 yards on offense in that game.
The running game carries the offense, with Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee doing the heavy work. They both had long TD runs in a Game 15 win over Dallas.
Rookie QB Joe Flacco flattened out late in the season but still finished with 14 TD passes and 12 interceptions. They can count on WR Derrick Mason for tough catches.
The Dolphins have to keep Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and their teammates from dominating the line of scrimmage. A heavy rush can make it tough for QB Chad Pennington to throw deep. He relies on timing to make up for his lack of a strong arm.
RB Ronnie Brown (916 yards) and WR Ted Ginn (56) catches are the top playmakers on offense. LB Joey Porter led the pass rush with 17.5 sacks.
Hot and cold: The Dolphins went from 1-15 last year to 11-5 and the AFC East title. They were plus 17 in turnover differential, best in the league. The Raves were plus 13, third best, and won nine of their last 11 games.
Betting favorite: Ravens by 3.5.
Prediction: Quoth the Ravens – never score. Defense carries them. The Ravens win and cover.
NFC
Eagles (9-6-1) at Vikings (10-6).
Site: Metrodome.
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. (EST).
TV/Radio: FOX-TV, Westwood One radio network, Sirius 124, 125, 127; XM 124, 102, 103.
History: On Oct. 28, 2007, Philly beat the Vikings, 27-24 behind Donovan McNabb’s 333 yards passing.
Update: There’s a lot at stake for the Vikings, and not just on the playing field. A loss could cost Coach Brad Childress his job, even though the Vikings won the NFC North and made the playoffs for the first time since 2004.
Owner Zig Wilf, a New Jersey-based businessman, is trying to convince the Minnesota legislature to kick in $300 million to build a new stadium. The odds are slim that he’ll succeed.
Tarvaris Jackson starts at QB for the Vikings. He had nine TD passes and two interceptions for the season, but at least three playoff teams have backups who are better than he is.
The Vikings will live or die with their defense and Adrian Peterson’s running. And they have to eliminate fumbles that hurt them late in the season.
McNabb finished strong. The Eagles clinched a playoff berth with a 44-6 win over the Cowboys in the final game. Neither team has a legitimate No. 1 receiver. The edge for Philly is RB Brian Westbrook, the best all-around back in the league when he’s healthy.
Minnesota’s defense gets more publicity, but the Eagles led the NFC in yards allowed – 374.3 per game.
Hot and cold: Eagles coach Andy Reid is 4-0 vs. Minnesota, and the Eagles won seven of their last eight games. Peterson won the rushing title with 1,760 yards.
Betting favorite: Eagles by 3.
Prediction: McNabb’s on a roll, and he’ll take the Eagles to the next round. Eagles win and cover.
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Hanson Shines in Lions’ 0-for-08 Nightmare
NFL Picks | by Mike O'Hara | 12.27.2008/10:52AM
Before we hatch a scenario for how the Lions can win at Green Bay on Sunday – or at least cover a point spread that’s hovered around 10 points all week – one bright spot needs considering in this wretched season.
Jason Hanson has been as close to perfect kicking field goals as the Lions are to putting the finishing touch on a season of imperfection.
Hanson’s amazing season is worthy of note in making this week’s picks – along with Cowboys owner Jerry Jones statement that Wade Phillips will return as head coach, Patriots receiver Wes Welker being fined for making a snowman in last week’s win over the Cardinals, and playoff spots still up for grabs on Sunday.
Hanson has kicked in the shadows all year, a product of playing on a team with the NFL’s worst record.
Hanson has made 21 of 22 field-goal attempts. The only miss was a block. Along the way, he has set two league records for long-range success. He is the only kicker in NFL history to go 8-for-8 on field goals from 50 yards or longer, and he set a record with 41 career field goals from 50 yards or longer.
In his 17th season, Hanson is as good as ever. He is on the last year of his contract and can be a free agent this year. The Lions have an ancient transition tag on him, which allows them to retain his services by matching any offer.
Hanson isn’t looking to leave Detroit, even though he has known nothing but losing for the last eight seasons.
Hanson enjoyed good times in the 1990’s. The Lions made the playoffs five times in his first eight seasons – from 1992 through ’99 – and he played on teams that had exciting, Pro Bowl players – Barry Sanders, Herman Moore, Lomas Brown, Kevin Glover, Chris Spielman, Bennie Blades, Robert Porcher, Luther Elliss and David Sloan to name a few.
With his contract up, Hanson picked a good time to have another stellar season. His first choice is to re-sign with the Lions, but he isn’t afraid to test the market.
Hanson spoke about his future as the Lions prepared for Sunday’s season-ending game in Green Bay. Management has talked to him about a new contract, Hanson said.
“I’ve always said, and I think this is true, Detroit is Plan A, still,” Hanson said. “It’s my first choice by far, but I’m also prepared for whatever happens. I just hope everything works out great and I come back.
“I don’t know what to say. Losing is terrible. I’ve said this isn’t fun. To be competitive – yeah, it would be great. It would be awfully rewarding to somehow survive long enough to see it be good here, too.”
Hanson can be taken at his word that he isn’t angling to get out of Detroit. But there’s a slight crack in his resolve. A few weeks ago, he said he wouldn’t take “just anything” to return.
It is hard to imagine the Lions not re-signing Hanson. He’s too good, and too much of a good influence on the team, not to bring him back.
“The only way I know how to say it is this: I don’t want to leave, but I’m not afraid to,” Hanson said. “I would be very disappointed to leave, but I also can do it if I have to.
“I’m not afraid to kick another place. I love Detroit, but I know how to do what I’m doing anywhere.”
With that in mind, here are our last kicks – and picks against the spread – for the 2008 regular season:
Lions at Packers (-9.5): The way for the Lions to win this game is for the Packers to keep playing like they have since they were 4-3 and still congratulating themselves for holding firm against Brett Favre and turning the future over to Aaron Rodgers.
The Packers have played well enough to lose seven of their last eight games. Six of the losses were by a combined 18 points. The other was a 51-29 wipeout at New Orleans.
The Lions have had some tough losses. The last game – 42-7 at home to New Orleans – was not one of them. This almost certainly will be Rod Marinelli’s final game as head coach of the Lions. The man has been resilient, resolute and unyielding in this awful season – everything you want in a head coach, except winning. Take the Packers to win, but not to cover. Pick: Lions.
Rams at Falcons (-14.5): The Rams won their first two games after Scott Linehan was fired and replaced by defensive coordinator Jim Haslett. Since then, the Rams have lost nine straight. The Falcons can clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoff field, and a first-round bye. They won’t stumble. Pick: Falcons.
Panthers at Saints (+3): Carolina has to be drained by last week’s overtime loss to the Giants. The Saints are 6-1 at home but lost at Carolina, on Oct. 19. Defensive injuries are hurting Carolina. A win or tie gives Carolina first place in the NFC South and a first-round bye. The running game, and Steve Smith, carry the Panthers. Pick: Panthers.
Bears at Texans (-2.5): The Bears win the NFC North with a win and a Vikings loss or tie with the Giants, or with a tie and a Vikings loss. The Bears and Texans are 4-1 in the last five games. The Bears have lived on the edge. Without safety Mike Brown, the Bears will trouble stopping wide receiver Andre Johnson, a defense buster. The Texans can have their first winning season in franchise history. Pick: Texans.
Giants at Vikings (-6.5): It’s right in front of the Vikings. The safest way to win the North is to beat the Giants. Ball security is an issue for the Vikings. They outgained the Falcons 350 yards to 222 last week but lost the game. They fumbled seven times, losing four. The Giants have a first-round bye, and coach Tom Coughlin is likely to give his starters some solid work. He doesn’t want them to lose their edge. Pick: Giants.
Patriots at Bills (+6.5): The Patriots can win the game and still miss the playoffs at 11-5 if Baltimore beats Jacksonville. Bills owner Ralph Wilson says he’ll decide coach Dick Jauron’s fate soon after the season. Players love playing for Jauron, but they haven’t won enough to keep his job out of jeopardy. It’s a defining game for Patriots QB Matt Cassel. His stock rises if he comes out big in the finale. Pick: Patriots.
Raiders at Bucs (-13): The Raiders have shown some life on offense. They don’t figure to win this one, but nothing is certain. The Bucs are skidding home for the second straight year. They lost three of the last four last year to make the playoffs at 9-7. A three-game losing streak has put them at 9-6. They make the playoffs with a win and a Dallas loss or tie. Take the points. Pick: Raiders.
Jaguars at Ravens (-12.5): Two long TD runs late in the game gave the Ravens a win over the Cowboys last week. A win puts them in the playoffs. The Jags slumped everywhere this year – running game, QB David Garrard, defense and coaching. John Harbaugh, the Ravens’ rookie head coach, doesn’t get enough mention for coach of the year. Here’s one vote for a coach’s son who grew up in Ann Arbor. Pick: Ravens.
Dolphins at Jets (+3): It’s homecoming for Dolphins QB Chad Pennington in a playoff showdown game with the Jets, his team from 2000 until Brett Favre’s arrival in training camp this year. The Dolphins clinch the AFC East with a win. The Jets clinch with a win and a loss by New England. Both teams have other wild-card possibilities. Favre discussed his future in a weird interview on Wednesday. Nobody in New York cares about anything except what he does on Sunday, and his play for the last month isn’t encouraging. Pick: Dolphins.
Cowboys at Eagles (-1.5): Jerry Jones told reporters on Friday that Wade Phillips will return as head coach. The Cowboys were 13-3 last year and are 9-6, for a two-year record of 22-9 under Phillips. But they didn’t win a playoff game last year, and they’ll be out of the playoffs if they lose to the Eagles. Even with a win, the Eagles need help to make the playoffs. QB Donovan McNabb could use help from his receivers, who had more than a half dozen clear-cut drops in last week’s loss to Washington. The Eagles fly on Sunday – and Phillips could face a stormy Monday, no matter what the owner has said. Pick: Eagles.
Broncos at Chargers (-8): The Broncos are out of running backs, and their defense is awful. They have a points differential of minus 47. The Chargers have won three straight. QB Philip Rivers has nine TD passes and one interception in that span. Pick: Chargers.
Chiefs at Bengals (-3): The Bengals can end the season with a three-game winning streak, which could be enough for coach Marvin Lewis to return. The Chiefs have shown more offense lately under QB Tyler Thigpen. They’re 2-22 in the last 24 games, with a loss to the Lions. Coach Herm Edwards might not survive a front-office shakeup. Pick: Bengals.
Browns at Steelers (-10.5): It’s a nothing game for both teams. That’s fitting for the Browns. They’ve had a nothing season. Bruce Gradkowski will be their fourth starting QB of the season. Pick: Steelers.
Titans at Colts (+3): Another nothing game, with both teams locked into their seeds in the AFC playoffs. Vince Young and Jim Sorgi could get extended playing time at QB. Pick: Titans.
Seahawks at Cardinals (-6): The Cardinals can go 6-0 in the NFC West with a win in Mike Holmgren’s last game as head coach of the Seahawks. Going out with a win would be a good touch for a class act. This one’s from the heart, not the wallet. Pick: Seahawks.
Redskins at 49ers (-3): The Niners are 4-4 since Mike Singletary was promoted to interim head coach, replacing Mike Nolan. All signs point to Singletary keeping the job – and firing Mike Martz as offensive coordinator. No coach has seen his star slide further and faster than Martz. Pick: 49ers.
Best Bet: Chargers
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