Take Steelers to Win Sixth Super Bowl
NFL Picks | by Mike O'Hara | 01.31.2009/12:06PM
Contact Mike O’Hara at mikeoharasports.com
When you’re hot, you’re hot – and my playoff picks have been hot. I’m 9-1 going into Super Bowl XLIII.
I didn’t have it exactly right in the conference championships. In the NFC, I picked the Eagles to win, but not cover. The Cardinals won, which gave me a win against the point spread. If you’re a betting man, that’s more than a moral victory.
The AFC pick was right on – the Steelers to beat the Ravens and cover the point spread. They did both.
Which brings us to the Steelers and Cardinals in Tampa. It’s a good, fascinating matchup of two old-line franchises. The Steelers are used to winning. They’re bidding to be the first franchise to win six Super Bowls.
The Cardinals haven’t won a championship since 1947, and they’re playing in their first Super Bowl.
The Cardinals belong in the championship game, no matter what some people mired in history might think. They did it the right way – by winning. They won the NFC West, then won three straight in the playoffs to reach the championship.
The Steelers are the better team. They have the league’s best defense, a running game that has awakened with Willie Parker’s return to health, and receivers who are reliable and make winning plays.
The most critical matchup for the Steelers is in their secondary, where they have to contain Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston.
For the Cardinals, the big battle is up front – contain the Steelers’ pass rush – which comes from everywhere in their 3-4 alignment – and give Kurt Warner time to throw.
Warner is in a class by himself in recognizing blitz schemes and getting the ball off to beat the rush. He’s the equivalent of a speed reader. He’ll make some big plays. Count on it.
But the power is on defense. It rules in championships – the way the Giants beat the Patriots last year.
The betting line favors the Steelers by seven points.
I like the Steelers to win a competitive, exciting game and head home from Tampa with a six-pack of Lombardi Drophies.
Final score: Steelers 30, Cardinals 20.
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No Upsets This Week in Conference Finals
NFL Picks | by Mike O'Hara | 01.17.2009/10:26AM
Contact Mike O’Hara at
I like an all-Pennsylvania Super Bowl – Philly steaks and the Steel Curtain from Pittsburgh – but that’s not the way I’m betting.
I’m not following my heart, either. My heart strings are tied to the Baltimore Ravens and their rookie head coach, John Harbaugh.
I like the Ravens, and not just because John Harbaugh grew up in Ann Arbor and comes from a family of football coaches – father Jack and brother Jim—with strong Michigan connections. I like the way Ravens management looked at a man who had spent most of his proc career coaching special teams and realized that gave him the necessary background to be a head coach.
So far, so great with my playoff picks against the spread. I’m 7-1 – including 4-0 in last week’s divisional round.
Without further hemming and hawing, here are my picks in Sunday’s conference games – and a prediction that the Eagles and Steelers will meet in Super Bowl XLIII in Tampa on Feb. 1.
NFC
Eagles (11-6-1) at Cardinals (11-7)
Site: University of Phoenix Stadium.
Kickoff: 3 p.m. (EST).
2008 meeting: Eagles 48, Cardinals 20 on Thanksgiving night in Philly.
Update: It’s hard to discount completely the Eagles’ victory, but the saving grace for the Cardinals is that they’ve rebounded and played their best ball in the last month, with a three-game winning streak.
Turnovers were critical in the first game – like they were in Arizona’s win over Carolina last week when Panthers QB Jake Delhomme had four interceptions. Arizona had four turnovers to one for Philly in the first meeting.
Two key players could be at less than full strength – running back Brian Westbrook for the Eagles, wide receiver Anquan Boldin for the Cardinals. Westbrook played last week with a sore knee. A hamstring injury kept Boldin out of the Carolina game. There’s no holding back for anyone this week, with the Super Bowl a week away.
Kurt Warner had three TD passes and three interceptions in the first game. The Cardinals rushed for only 25 yards on 10 attempts. Donovan McNabb threw four TD passes without a pick, and Westbrook ran for 110 yards and two TDs.
The Eagles did not have a sack in that game. They’re likely to get to Warner in the rematch.
Betting favorite: Eagles by four.
O’Hara’s pick: Take the Eagles to win, but the Cardinals to cover. It’s a close match, all the way. Eagles 27, Cardinals 24.
AFC
Ravens (13-5), Steelers (13-4)
Site: Heinz Field.
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. (EST).
2008 meetings: The Steelers swept both AFC North games – 23-20 at Pittsburgh on Sept. 29, and 13-9 at Baltimore on Dec. 14.
Update: It’s a boxing match – and the heavyweights are throwing the leather.
Both teams have great defense, but with different style. The Steelers ranked first in the league on defense in the regular season. The Ravens were second.
There are stars on both defenses – James Harrison, LaMasrr Woodley and Troy Polamalu for Pittsburgh, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Bart Scott and Terrell Suggs for the Ravens.
The Steelers led the league in scoring defense, allowing 223 points. The Ravens were third with 244. The differential was almost entirely a product of the two games – which Pittsburgh won by a combined seven points.
The return of running back Willie Parker, who had a big game in last week’s win over San Diego, should help the Steelers’ defense. Santanio Holmes adds a big-play threat opposite Hines Ward, the toughest receiver in football.
The Ravens are rolling with rookie QB Joe Flacco. The world keeps waiting for him to crack, but he doesn’t. A huge third-down completion last week was crucial in last week’s win at Tennessee.
If the pass rush can get to Flacco, it could be a decisive win for the Steelers. The Ravens have a gritty, productive receiver in Derrick Mason, but they have to keep games close to win.
Betting favorite: Steelers by 6.
O’Hara’s pick: Give the points. The Steelers win with Big Ben, Heinz and Hines. Steelers 23, Ravens 9.
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