Lions to Snap Losing Skid Against Vikings
NFL Picks | by Mike O'Hara | 09.19.2009/5:58PM
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This is my analysis and prediction of Game 2 – the Lions vs. the Minnesota Vikings at Ford Field. My complete NFL picks for Week 2 are available on The Detroit News website at detnews.com.
Kickoff: Sunday at 1 p.m. (EDT).
History: The Vikings have a 63-30-2 series lead with a three-game winning streak.
2008: The Vikings rallied to win both games, 12-10 at the Metrodome and 20-16 at Ford Field.
Lions’ injury report: Doubtful DE Cliff Avril (hamstring), QB Drew Stanton (knee); Questionable DT Andre Fluellen (knee), CB Eric King; Probable CB Phillip Buchanon (neck), K Jason Hanson (right knee), DT Grady Jackson (knee), CB William James (foot), G Daniel Loper (knee).
Vikings injury report: Out LB Erin Henderson (calf); Questionable LB Heath Farwell (hamstring); Probable G Anthony Herrera (back), TE Jim Kleinsassser (hand).
Culpepper factor: The Lions are 0-10 in games against the Vikings in which Daunte Culpepper has started at quarterback. He started for the Lions in one game against the Vikings last year – a 20-16 loss.
Key Lions’ stats: 6 – the number of TD passes thrown against them last week by Saints QB Drew Brees; 157 – yards rushing for the Saints; 27.4 – Matthew Stafford’s passer rating in his first pro start. None of those are winning numbers.
Key Vikings stat: 66, 116, 111, 105 – RB Adrian Peterson’s rushing totals in his four games against the Lions. He has scored two TDs – both in a game at the Metrodome in 2007.
Favre factor: Vikings QB Brett Favre had a 25-9 won-lost record against the Lions in 16 seasons with Green Bay. Two wins were in the playoffs. Favre won 13 of his last 15 games vs. the Lions and the last five.
Lion in the spotlight: It’s cornerback Phillip Buchanon, who missed the opener because of a neck injury. Eric King started in Buchanon’s place and was beaten soundly all game. Buchanon should hold up better in coverage and give the rush a chance to get to Favre.
How the Lions can win: They got good returns on special teams last week and good coverage, except for the opening kickoff. Another game of that can make a difference. They have to hold down Peterson and turn the blitz loose on Favre. He can’t move and will throw it up for grabs.
How the Vikings can win: They’re heavy favorites for good reasons. Two good reasons – Peterson’s running, and a defense led by the Williams Wall – tackles Pat and Kevin Williams. If they play their game, they’ll make it tough for the Lions. Tough, but not impossible.
Betting favorite: Vikings by 9.5.
Prediction: Take the points all day in this one. The Brett Favre you’ll see in the white jersey with purple trim isn’t the one who scorched the Lions for 16 years wearing yellow and green for the Packers. Something good has to happen for the Lions eventually, and Sunday is as good a day as any. The Lions played them tough twice last year, and they’re better this year. Stafford got his first taste of real game tempo last week. He’ll make adjustments. Lions 16, Vikings 14.
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Week 1 Prediction: Will Saints March on Lions?
NFL Picks | by Mike O'Hara | 09.11.2009/6:24PM
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This is my analysis and prediction of Game 1 – the Lions at New Orleans Saints. My complete NFL picks for Week 1 are available on The Detroit News website at detnews.com.
Kickoff: Sunday at 1 p.m. (EDT).
History: The series is tied 9-9-1, and the Lions have won the three of the last four.
Last meeting: Game 15 of 2008 – a 42-17 Saints victory at Ford Field.
Lions’ injury report: Doubtful QB Drew Stanton (knee). Questionable CB Phillip Buchanon (neck), WR Yamon Figurs (finger), G Stephen Peterman (ankle). Probable K Jason Hanson (right knee), DE Jason Hunter (ribs), DT Grady Jackson (knee), WR Dennis Northcutt (hand).
If Peterman can’t play, Manny Ramirez will take his place.
The key issue for Hanson, who underwent surgery and has not kicked since the first exhibition game, is stamina and whether he can hold up on kickoffs and long field goals.
Saints’ injury report: Out OT Jammal Brown (hip surgery), TE Darnell Dinkins (foot), RB Pierre Thomas (knee). Probable TE Jeremy Shockey (ankle), S Usama Young (shoulder).
With Brown and Thomas out, it hurts the running game and protection for Brees.
Key Lions’ stats: Their defense ranked last in the NFL in 2008 in points, yards and average gain per play allowed. The Lions had a league-low four pass interceptions, and only one was by a defensive back (Leigh Bodden, who was released and signed with New England).
New Lions defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham spent last season in Kansas City, where the Chiefs had a league-low 10 quarterback sacks.
A combination of those stats – only four interceptions and four sacks – would be a gruesome combination. Don’t expect either to occur.
Key Saints stat: Drew Brees became the second player in NFL history to pass for more than 5,000 yards in a season with 5,069 last year. Dan Marino holds the record with 5,084. Brees had 10 300-yard passing games, tying the record set by Rich Gannon with the Raiders in 2002
Saints’ new defensive scheme: Gregg Williams is their new defensive coordinator. He was in line to become the head coach of the Washington Redskins in 2008, but owner Dan Snyder first hired Jim Zorn as offensive coordinator, then promoted him to head coach within a few weeks.
Williams is known for wanting to pressure quarterbacks. That can be done by blitzing, which Williams likes, and schemes designed to confuse the quarterback.
Spotlight: It’s on Matthew Stafford, the Lions’ rookie and the first player drafted in April. He beat out Daunte Culpepper for the starting job.
In the exhibition season, Stafford showed a strong arm – and a willingness to use it on deep throws and between defenders. He’ll make some mistakes, but they have to be overcome by big plays. For that, he has wide receiver Calvin Johnson. They seemed to develop a chemistry in the exhibition season.
Saints’ problem: Their running game is suspect because of injuries. Reggie Bush played sparingly in the exhibition season because of sore knees, and Pierre Thomas is out. The run defense was the weakest part of the Lions’ defense last year.
How the Lions can win: If it’s an even game, mano-a-mano according to the script, the Saints will win. They’re better than the Lions, and this is their fourth year with Sean Payton as head coach and Brees at quarterback.
The Lions need to win the turnover battle, control the ball and maximize their scoring opportunities. They won’t win simply by winning time of possession. They have to gets points out of drives.
How the Saints can win: Just play their game at home, and everything will take care of itself. That’s easier said than done, though, and the Saints are hardly a powerhouse. They’re 26-24, counting playoffs, in Payton’s three years as head coach.
If the running game is questionable, they can ride Brees’ arm.
Betting favorite: Saints by 13.
Prediction: Until the Lions’ defense steps up and makes stops on a consistent basis, there’s no reason to think they can hold quarterbacks like Brees in check. The Lions will do well enough on offense, but the Saints should march.
Saints 34, Lions 17.
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