Vegas Puts Lions Win total at 5: I Say Bet the Over
NFL Picks | by Mike O'Hara | 05.26.2010/7:35AM
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The Lions are getting better, and you can bet on it.
How much better?
That’s for bettors to decide.
The Las Vegas Hilton Sports Book has published the over-under win totals on the NFL’s 2010 regular season, and the Hilton puts the Lions’ total at five wins – with odds favoring the Lions to go over.
Awhile back, I made a joke about local talk show host Doug Karsch reacting to visits by draft prospects like a porcupine on a whoopee cushion. And I had to admit, when Karsch called me out on the air, I really had no idea what a porcupine on a whoopee cushion means. All in good fun, obviously.
For me, the opening lines and prop bets for the NFL are my – well, whoopee cushion. Except I’m more like a hippo on a water bed. I get worked up over this stuff.
I rate the Lions’ bottom-line at six wins, with a maximum, best-case scenario of 8-8.
That means bet the over – but with some words of caution, based on finances.
To bet the over, you have to lay $135 to win $100. For under five wins, a bet of $100 returns $115.
First, you have to lay the money before the start of the regular season. The Lions open at Chicago on Sept. 12. That means your money is tied up for almost four months.
Second, the Lions have to win six games to collect on the over bet. If they win five, you get a push – but you’ve lost four months of being able to collect interest or use the money for any other investment purpose – like playing blackjack at the casino.
And third – and certainly not least in the world of risk – you can lose, and pay the 35 percent premium on betting the over.
Some other nuggets from the Hilton Sports Book’s early lines:
The Lions are seven-point underdogs on opening day.
The Hilton has posted odds on prime-time TV games – including Thanksgiving Day. The Patriots are favored by six over the Lions on Thanksgiving Day.
In the NFC North, the over-under totals are 9.5 on the Packers and Vikings and eight on the Bears. I do not see the Bears winning eight games.
The Chargers and Colts are at the top of the board with 11 wins. Next are the Super Bowl champion Saints at 10.5 and the Ravens at 10. Those four are the only teams with double digit win totals.
The Lions and Rams are at the bottom with five wins. The Bills and Bucs are next at 5.5.
Don’t tell me games between the so-called weak teams are meaningless. Big money can change hands on these three games: Week 5, Lions at Rams; Week 10 Lions at Bills; Week 15, Lions at Bucs. If you’ve bet the over or under doesn’t matter. Those games could decide whether you fly to Vegas to collect and splurge, or throw a shoe through the TV screen.
The Eagles are at 8.5 with Kevin Kolb at QB in place of Donovan McBabb. That’s a drop from last year’s 11-5. The Redskins are at 7.5 with McNabb at QB – up from 4-12. In my math, that makes McNabb worth six wins.
Two bets I’d absolutely make: the Lions to go over 5, the Patriots to go under 9.5. The Patriots have not been the same since their Super Bowl loss to the Giants.
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Lions to Break Losing Streak vs. Fading Skins
NFL Picks | by Mike O'Hara | 09.26.2009/5:49PM
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This is my analysis and prediction of Game 3 – the Redskins-Lions at Ford Field on Sunday. My complete NFL picks for Week 3 are available on The Detroit News website at detnews.com.
Kickoff: Sunday at 1 p.m. (EDT).
History: The Redskins have a 27-10 series lead, and 3-0 in the playoffs. They have a five—game winning streak over the Lions.
2008: The Redskins won, 25-17, at Ford Field.
Lions’ injury report: Doubtful – DE Cliff Avril (hamstring), CB Eric King (shoulder), LB Ernie Sims (shoulder); Questionable—CB Phillip Buchanon (neck), DE Andre Fluellen (knee), QB Drew Stanton (knee); Probable – RB Jerome Felton (ankle), DT Sammie Hill (neck), DT Grady Jackson (knee), G Daniel Loper (knee) S Marquand Manuel (knee).
Key Lions’ stat: 0-19. The 19-game losing streak overrides everything.
Key Redskins’ stat: 3-7. That’s their won-lost record since beating the Lions in Game 8 last year at Ford Field. That kind of record can get a coach fired in Washington, and the heat’s on Jim Zorn in his second season.
What is Haynesworth? Albert Haynesworth signed a mega-contract with the Redskins as a free agent, and his presence is supposed to strengthen the Redskins rushing defense. The Redskins ranked eighth in the league against the run last year, allowing 4.4 yards per attempt. They’re 17th after two games, and the average is the same, 4.4 yards.
Lions’ problem: They lack a true No. 2 receiver to work with Calvin Johnson. The load has shifted to a trio of tight ends – Will Heller, Casey FitzSimmons and rookie Brandon Pettigrew. Pettigrew has moved into the starting job and had four catches last year. Look for him to be a second option – with 60-70 catches a possibility.
Betting favorite: Redskins by 6.5.
Prediction: A lot of people see improvement in the Lions. It has to be converted to wins, though, or it doesn’t matter. The Redskins are under pressure not to lose to the Lions, and they haven’t been good under pressure in recent years. Pick: Lions 20, Redskins 19.
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