MIKE O'HARA SPORTS

Monday Countown: Draft, Big Ben, Great Debate

NFL Countdown | by Mike O'Hara | 04.12.2010/9:10AM

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(Another in a series leading up to the NFL Draft, April 22-24.)

Size matters at almost every level in the NFL – in the trenches, and at the skill positions. All other things being equal, bigger and stronger add up to being drafted higher.
The premium on size could produce the biggest surprise in the top half of the first round of next week’s draft. Most experts project C.J. Spiller of Clemson to be the first back drafted.
Maybe not. Ryan Matthews of Fresno State could go ahead of Spiller. The reason: Matthews is substantially bigger and stronger. That translates to more durable in the NFL.
That is one of the issues in this week’s Monday Countdown. Most of it focuses on the draft, with another look at defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy.
Regarding Suh, my odds have changed on the Lions drafting him with the second pick overall.
There’s also a look at the hyperbole attached to wide receiver Santonio Holmes – is he really “great”?—traded over the weekend from Pittsburgh to the Jets, the history of defensive tackles being taken high in the draft, a key mock draft that was published over the weekend, and what I’ve been told about how people with the Steelers view Ben Roethlisberger.
We start with Suh and McCoy.

1. Suh-McCoy on the road: They’re on a tag-team tour of teams drafting at the top of the board.
The Rams, Lions and Bucs have the top three picks, in that order, on the first round.
McCoy visited the Lions in mid-March. The next day, Suh arrived.
    McCoy arrived in Tampa on Sunday. Suh is scheduled to be there on Tuesday, then head to St. Louis. McCoy has said he has a visit scheduled in St. Louis.
    What does it mean?
Not much, really. The Rams seem locked in on taking QB Sam Bradford of Oklahoma with first pick. That leaves Suh and McCoy on the board for the Lions and Bucs – in that order.

2. Updating my odds on Suh to the Lions: I’m getting cold feet on my prediction that the Lions are 99.8 certain to draft Suh.
As of this writing – 10 days until the first round, with the clock ticking – I unashamedly admit to being wrong with my odds. They were too low.
Make it 99.999 percent for the Lions drafting Suh. That leaves .001 percent wiggle room that something will happen to upset my draft projection.

3. Value pick: In most cases and most draft years, it is correct that defensive tackle is not a priority position at the top of the draft board based on finances.
Quarterback, offensive left tackle and edge pass-rushers – defensive ends or outside linebackers – are the priority positions because of impact. Cornerback is in there, along with running back in some cases.
Defensive tackles, middle linebackers and safeties generally rate down the board.
There are exceptions, and this year is one of them. There are six or seven true blue-chip prospects, and Suh and McCoy are in a tight cluster at the top of the list.
Offensive tackles Russell Okung and Trent Williams and safety Eric Berry rank with Bradford, Suh and McCoy as the six true blue-chip prospects.
There are other good players – cornerback, defensive tackle and offensive tackle are deep – but they aren’t blue-chippers.
That puts a premium on Suh and McCoy, who both have the ability to be game—changers.

4. Big Back Theory: Matthews has something that Spiller and Jahvid Best of California lack – size. Matthews is 6 feet and 218 pounds and ran the 40 in 4.37 seconds. Spiller’s 40 time was an eye-popping 4.27 seconds, but he’s 196 pounds. Best weighs 199 and has some injury history.
Running backs take a pounding in the NFL. An extra 20 pounds, to go with his speed, could vault Matthews to the top of the running back class. Another to watch is Ben Tate of Auburn, a 220-pounder who ran the 40 in 4.34.
There are exceptions – of course. Chris Johnson, a 2,000-yard runner for the Titans, weighs 200 pounds.

5. Big Ben Weary: People with close ties to the Steelers’ organization have given this insight to the feeling within the organization about Ben Roethlisberger: his work ethic, toughness and game-day production are respected.
But he’s not an easy guy to like, and he has a knack for rubbing people the wrong way – teammates and others in the organization alike.

6. Santonio Holmes: The word “great” was attached to Holmes in ESPN’s report Monday morning about the trade that has sent Holmes from the Steelers to the Jets.
“Great” fits Holmes in two ways. He made a great catch for the game-winning TD in Super Bowl XLIII. It will be an enduring highlight.
And the notion that he is “great” is a great exaggeration.
In four seasons with the Steelers, Holmes has 235 catches and 20 TDs.
In three seasons with the Lions, Calvin Johnson has 193 catches and 21 TDs.
If Holmes is great, what does that make Calvin Johnson?

7. Super Mock: Rick Gosselin’s Mock Drafts and player ratings in the Dallas Morning News are the platinum standard among media experts. Here are the top seven picks in his Mock Draft, published over the weekend:
    Rams – Sam Bradford.
    Lions – Ndamukong Suh (“best player in the draft”).
    Bucs – Gerald McCoy.
    Redskins – Russell Okung.
    Chiefs – Eric Berry.
    Seahawks – Trent Williams.
    Browns – Jimmy Clausen.

My only disagreement is Clausen going to the Browns. They won’t draft a quarterback.

8. Eric Berry: His value as a safety was enhanced by his 2009 season at Tennessee, where he played under renowned defensive coach Monte Kiffin. Berry moved into the slot on passing downs and learned coverage techniques needed in the NFL to be an elite every-down player.
Berry can do more than crash down and defend the run. That separates him from players such as Southern Cal’s Taylor Mays, a one-dimensional run-defender.

9. Tim Tebow: The Florida quarterback likely will be a second-round pick, but he’ll come with some baggage – none of it related to his impeccable personal character. It will be from the media and fan pressure on the coach whose team drafts him.
Prediction: The coach will be fired before the end of Tebow’s third season.

10. The real McCoy: I like Colt McCoy as a second-round pick for any team. He’ll be a better pro than Clausen.

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